The idea of probability; tree diagrams; mutual exclusion and independence.
Probability of an event consisting of equiprobable outcomes.
Using tree diagrams to calculate probabilities of combined events.
The cases \(P(A\cap B)=0\) and \(P(A\cap B)=P(A)\,P(B)\).
Histograms; averages and measures of dispersion for ungrouped and grouped data.
Measures of central tendency for ungrouped data.
Measures of central tendency for grouped data.
Measures of dispersion for ungrouped and grouped data.
Discrete distributions (including Binomial, Poisson); continuous distributions (including Normal).
Independent identical trials with success probability \(p\).
Events that occur randomly but at a steady rate.
Continuous random variables and probability density.
The bell curve; using lookup tables; using percentage points.
What's the correct distribution?
Null and alternative hypotheses; selecting a test; performing and interpreting a test.
Deciding on the default (null) hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis.
How is my test statistic distributed? What test should I use?
How strong is the evidence for an effect that isn't simply due to chance variation?
Estimators, standard error and confidence intervals.
Estimating means, standard deviations etc from numerical data.
How uncertain is my estimate?
"My estimate is almost certainly no more wrong than…"
Regression and Correlation
Fitting a curve to data, and measuring the correlation of two quantities.
The least-squares curve of best fit.
The correlation coefficient; significance of correlation.
Rank correlation (Spearman's version); significance.
Rank correlation (Kendall's version); significance.